Syria After Assad: The Scramble for Influence

Panel 1: Syria: What's Happened? What's Next?

Council of American Ambassadors 2025 Spring Conference

Moderator: Council of American Ambassadors' John Rakolta, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates.

Panelists:

-Charles Lister, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute

-Dani Pletka, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

-Henri Barkey, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

-Qutaiba Idlbi, Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council 

This panel convened to assess the current state of Syria and explore potential trajectories for the country's future amid ongoing conflict and geopolitical complexity. Ambassador Rakolta moderated a wide-ranging discussion that highlighted competing visions for Syria’s governance, the role of international actors, and the prospects for regional stability.

A focal point of the conversation was the emergence of Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Sunni Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Panelists debated the implications of al-Sharaa’s leadership, noting that while he is not an unknown figure to the United States and Western policymakers, his background and HTS’s ideological roots raise questions about legitimacy, governance capacity, and alignment with international norms.

Panelists diverged in their assessments of Syria’s trajectory. Some viewed al-Sharaa’s consolidation of power as a pragmatic evolution of opposition control, while others cautioned against legitimizing HTS given its past associations with extremist factions. All agreed, however, that al-Sharaa faces profound challenges—chief among them being Iran’s entrenchment in the Syrian security apparatus and the continued threat posed by ISIS remnants in the region.

The discussion also examined the roles and strategic interests of key external actors, including the United States, Turkey, Israel, and regional Arab states. The panel underscored the need for a long-term diplomatic strategy to ensure that any political transition in Syria reflects both domestic legitimacy and international security priorities.