Syria After Assad: The Scramble for Influence

Panel 2: Nature Abhors a Vacuum: The Race for Influence in Post-Assad Syria  Council of American Ambassadors 2025 Spring Conference

Moderator:  Council of American Ambassadors James Gilmore III, former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and former Governor of Virginia.

Panelists:

-Michael Doran, Hudson Institute

-Dr. Dawn Murphy, National War College

-Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Brookings

The panel framed Syria as a critical arena for shaping a new Middle Eastern order following the Assad regime’s overthrow. Syria’s future will influence regional balances, particularly between Turkey, Israel, Iran, and Russia.

Panelists agreed on Turkey’s expanding interests with President Erdogan poised to play a dominant role in post-Assad Syria. Turkey seeks to secure its southern border, gain economic leverage, and potentially push for the withdrawal of Iranian and Russian actors. Ankara may seek to further establish their military presence through additional bases in Syria to protect Turkey's strategic interests. U.S. engagement in Syria will have to take into account Turkey’s role.

China’s quiet, but concerned role continues under the Assad regime. China is primarily concerned with preventing the empowerment of Uyghur militants from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), which operates in Syria. Beijing’s interest is tied to domestic security in Xinjiang, rather than territorial or ideological goals in Syria. Beijing views the presence of Uyghur fighters in Syria as a direct threat to its domestic stability in Xinjiang.

Ongoing Great Power Competition is still at play. Syria remains a flashpoint for U.S., Russian, Iranian, Turkish, and Chinese interests. However, the panel agreed that Turkey stands to benefit most, leveraging the post-conflict vacuum to expand its regional influence.