Syria After Assad: The Scramble for Influence

Keynote Luncheon Remarks with Ambassador David Hale 

Council of American Ambassadors 2025 Spring Conference

Ambassador David Hale offered a comprehensive analysis of Syria’s ongoing crisis by tracing its roots through history. He emphasized that while the current dynamics in Syria are novel, understanding the nation's historical context is critical. Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Syria has struggled with governance, a theme that continues to shape its modern political reality.

Ambassador Hale highlighted the recent departure of Bashar al-Assad, stating definitively that "Assad is gone for good." In his place, interim president al-Sharaa has emerged—a figure Ambassador Hale described as a political chameleon, adapting his rhetoric depending on his audience. The central question, Ambassador Hale posits, is whether al-Sharaa will make a genuine break from Syria’s authoritarian and Islamist-tinged past and steer the country toward a democratic future.

Syria’s transition, according to Ambassador Hale, was hastened by Russia’s military distraction in Ukraine, allowing al-Sharaa to act swiftly and decisively. This shift in Syria’s leadership has redirected the attention of key regional players—namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar— to opening their checkbooks to Damascus rather than Gaza because of Israel’s clear intentions in Gaza.

Ambassador Hale raised an important strategic question: Will Syria’s transformation capture the sustained attention of U.S. policymakers, particularly in light of the Trump administration’s evolving foreign policy priorities?

Despite growing Great Power Competition, particularly with China’s quiet presence in the region, the United States still retains significant influence in the Middle East. As great power rivalry continues, Syria’s future—and America’s role in shaping it—remains a critical piece of the geopolitical puzzle.